L’AGEFI – Saving surprises - Société Générale

Saving Surprises: How Global Events Reshape Household Savings

By Michala Marcussen, Group Chief Economist

Overview

Political uncertainty, pension reform, and extreme weather events are significantly influencing household savings patterns worldwide. These changes often catch economic forecasters off guard in the post-pandemic era.

Household Savings Trends by Region

Euro Area

The euro area’s household savings rate remains unusually high despite economic forecasts projecting a gradual decline. According to ECB staff projections from September, the savings rate is expected to decrease from 15.0% in 2024 to 14.0% by 2027. This reduction is anticipated to boost private consumption by 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5 percentage points in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively.

As President Lagarde noted after the 30 October Governing Council, euro area households continue to save an unusually large proportion of their incomes.

Eurostat data recently confirmed an average household savings rate of 15% in the euro area, reflecting this ongoing trend.

China and the US

China's household savings rate remains persistently high, defying expectations of rapid change.
In the US, the household savings buffer has significantly shrunk, limiting economic cushioning.

Implications

The evolving dynamics of household savings are crucial in determining future economic growth and global balance shifts. Understanding these trends is essential for accurate economic forecasting and policymaking.

Author's Summary

Household savings patterns are shifting unpredictably due to political and environmental factors, impacting economic forecasts and future global financial stability.

Would you like me to include any specific focus on pension reforms or extreme weather events in the summary?

Groupe Société Générale — 2025-11-07